IFSWF Santiago Principles

The rise of a bipolar world: Sovereign wealth fund views on the global macro outlook

Working with Invesco, one of the world’s leading independent investment managers, the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds has published The rise of a bipolar world: Sovereign wealth fund views on the global macro outlook.

This survey of 24 sovereign wealth funds conducted at the end of June, examined the outlook for the coming year and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy. As part of this work, IFSWF members were asked about their short-to-medium-term macroeconomic views. For the first time ever, the survey results present a comprehensive view of how sovereign wealth funds are thinking about how the global macro environment will develop over the coming year.

The study reveals that, in the short-to-medium term, sovereign wealth funds are expecting the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment to be dominated by tensions between the United States and China, with emerging economies largely aligning with China, but with the European Union being caught in between.

They also believe that the key event of the next twelve months will be the US presidential election in November, the outcome of which will shape how the global investment environment develops. While sovereign wealth funds overwhelmingly believe a second term for President Trump will lead to the US becoming more isolationist, they do not necessarily believe that a victory for Joe Biden guarantees that the US will become more multilateralist and outward-looking. Overall, they believe the global economy will be facing a few bumpy quarters ahead.

Read the Report ►

© 2024 International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds. All rights reserved.
Email: secretariat@ifswf.org  |  Phone: +44 203 906 7320